The Short‑Term Holder (STH) cost basis, a key pivot between bullish and bearish local regimes, sits near $105,400. This metric is key to defining BTC’s subsequent movements.
Price has repeatedly met resistance around the STH +1 band at nearly $125,100, labeled as a “heated” area. A decisive close above that level would shift focus to the STH +2 band near $141,600, where sell‑side pressure historically intensifies.
The report also highlighted that the weekend stress test passed. Network liquidity absorbed one of the cycle’s largest distribution events as an early investor, via Galaxy Digital, moved roughly $9.6 billion worth of Bitcoin across market and OTC venues.
The spot price fell to $115,000 before stabilizing near $118,000, indicating market depth even during thin weekend hours.
The report estimated that the Realized Cap, which is dollar-denominated liquidity embedded in the chain, is at over $1 trillion, a scale that helps explain the swift stabilization.
Furthermore, flow metrics spiked around the event. Net Realized Profit/Loss hit a record $3.7 billion, while realized profits exceeded losses by a 571x multiple. These levels are seen on only 1.5% of days.
The report cautioned that extreme profit‑taking often precedes local exhaustion but doesn’t always immediately mark a top, as prior peaks have followed with a lag.
Holder rotation is still in positive breadth. Long‑Term Holder Net Realized P/L surged to an all‑time high $2.5 billion, the largest single sell‑side print on record, as Long-Term Holders (LTH) distributed into strength.
The LTH/STH supply ratio has contracted 11% in 30 days, mirroring distribution waves seen near each all-time high this cycle.
Nevertheless, more than 97% of supply remains in profit, aggregate unrealized profits reached $1.4 trillion, and unrealized profit as a share of market cap is back above levels representing a blend of euphoria, risk, and demand tailwind.
LTHs still hold 53% of network wealth, leaving additional supply that could unlock at higher prices.
Cost‑basis distribution shows a high‑volume node at $117k-$122k and a low‑volume “air‑gap” at $115k-$110k that the market may re‑test on weakness.
Within STH sub-cohorts, the 24-hour to 3-month ribbon sits $110k-$117k, reinforcing that area as first support.
Until buyers clear $125K with conviction, the $105k-$125k range holds.
