Bitcoin is trading just above the $100,000 level after pulling back from its recent high of $105K. While the retrace appears healthy, market sentiment is beginning to fracture. Some analysts warn of a deeper correction below the psychological $100K mark, pointing to growing uncertainty in the short term. However, others see this as a necessary step to establish stronger support before the next leg up.
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s realized price—a key metric tracking the average price of all coins in circulation—currently stands around $45,000 and continues to climb. This upward trend in realized price reinforces the idea that the broader market is still in a healthy accumulation phase.
Additionally, daily Realized Profit (RP) yield ranges from 0.10% to 0.23%, translating to an impressive 36–85% annualized yield. The 30-day simple moving average of RP yield sits around 0.10%, or 35–40% annualized, indicating sustained profit-taking but not yet at overheated levels.
Bitcoin is currently testing demand near the $100,000 level after a strong multi-week rally that added over 40% in value since its April 9th low. Following a surge that brought BTC to the $105K mark, the market is now consolidating, with investors closely watching for signs of continuation or a deeper pullback. For now, the structure remains bullish, but volatility is expected.
Daily Realized Profit (RP) yield, a key profitability metric, ranges from 0.10% to 0.23%, or roughly 36–85% on an annualized basis. The 30-day simple moving average of this metric holds steady at around 0.10%, equal to 35–40% annualized. These figures point to a healthy market environment—profits are being realized, but not at levels that suggest excessive euphoria or speculative overheating.
Despite the bullish backdrop, analysts remain divided. Some argue that a major breakout is imminent once BTC confirms support above $100K, while others anticipate a correction to reset positioning. Either way, the current data signals that Bitcoin remains in a sustainable bull phase driven by organic demand and strengthening fundamentals.
The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating just above the $100K psychological level, trading at $101,921 after a failed breakout attempt near $105K. This pullback has shifted short-term momentum, with BTC now moving between key horizontal levels: $103,600 as resistance and $100,000 as crucial support.
Price action reveals lower highs forming since the local peak, suggesting that buying pressure is weakening in the short term. However, the broader trend remains intact, with the 200 EMA ($95,319) and 200 SMA ($93,656) trending upward and acting as dynamic support. This zone around $95K–$96K is likely to serve as a demand floor should Bitcoin lose $100K in the near term.
Volume has tapered off during this pullback, indicating that the retracement is more likely corrective than driven by panic selling. Still, the current structure warrants caution: a clean reclaim of $103,600 is needed to reestablish bullish dominance and target a breakout above the all-time high.
Until then, traders are likely to monitor the $100K level closely. A breakdown could trigger a cascade toward the $96K–$98K region, while a bounce here would strengthen the case for a renewed push toward price discovery.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
