Bitcoin is approaching a decisive inflection in its four-year cycle, with a euphoric “blowoff” advance likely to begin within days—or the market having already printed its peak at month 33—according to cycle analyst Bob Loukas. In a video published on September 24, 2025, Loukas told viewers he remains “heavily” inclined toward an imminent upside resolution into a cycle high during Q4, while outlining the risk markers that would instead confirm the top is already in.
Loukas placed the recent August high at month 33, a timing band that “pretty closely” echoes prior cycles and, in his words, makes a bearish interpretation “credible.” He stressed he is not ignoring the relative underperformance versus equities and the powerful rally in gold. From a purely structural standpoint, the move from the bear-market low to the month-33 high amounts to “a very healthy 700% rise,” and—under a diminishing-returns framework—could be a complete cycle in itself. “I give it an outside chance that it peaked on month 33… maybe 10% to 20%,” he said. Still, he argued that attempting to sidestep risk at this exact juncture is unwise “on the eve of a possible move up.”
If the blowoff materializes, Loukas expects it to follow the established template of late-cycle weekly advances that compound rapidly over eight to fifteen weeks. He will not commit to a hard target, but he illustrated the magnitude with prior doubling moves. “A doubling from the lows here in the last few months—let’s call it $105k—gets us up to $210k… getting to the $200,000 level by December, although it sounds extremely optimistic… there is a pretty clear path to that possibility,” he said. He emphasized that execution should be guided by sentiment and overextension rather than round-number targets: “I think we want to be a little flexible… looking at how stretched this market can get.”
Risk management was a major focus. Loukas flagged the 10-month moving average—“around about the $100,000 level”—as a late-cycle guardrail: “Closing a month out under the $100,000 is a major warning sign at this point.” He also marked the prior “big weekly cycle decline down at $75,000” as a line that “Bitcoin shouldn’t be anywhere near,” implying that a breach would be consistent with a bear market already underway.
On the upside, he wants confirmation via fresh all-time highs that establish clear invalidation below. “Ideally, what I want to see is a move back above the $120,000 level… if we get a move to new all-time highs, then that certainly would become my floor,” he said, adding that a subsequent reversal “back below the $105,000 level” after printing a new high would “indicate a change in trend and a likely top.”
For now, his base case is that the market is “on the cusp of a significant start to a final leg into the bull market high,” with a peak most likely in the 35–37-month window from the prior cycle low. If the market fails to deliver a sustained breakout and instead rolls over through his predefined levels, the analyst says he will treat that as confirmation that the cycle topped at month 33 and will pivot accordingly.
At press time, BTC traded at $111,740.
