Any bounce attempt will likely encounter selling pressure from short-term holders seeking breakeven exits after being pushed into unrealized losses. The one-month cost basis sits higher at $115,600, creating an additional resistance layer that could cap recovery attempts.
More concerning for bulls, the critical support level rests at $107,000, representing the six-month cost basis threshold. As of press time, Bitcoin is priced at $112,206.57.
A sustained breakdown below this zone risks triggering fear among newer market participants and could accelerate downside momentum toward the $95,000-$93,000 region, where historical analysis suggests potential bottom formation.
The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap reveals a thick cluster of supply between $93,000 and $110,000 that has been forming since December 2024. This accumulation zone has provided resilience above $110,000 but also represents the logical target area should selling pressure intensify.
Statistical analysis of four-year bands indicates prior bearish drawdowns typically found lows around one standard deviation beneath short-term holders’ cost basis, supporting the $95,100 projection.
The current market structure indicates that Bitcoin has experienced an 11.4% drawdown from its peak, which remains modest compared to historical mid-cycle corrections that typically exceed 25%.
The Relative Unrealized Loss stands at just 0.5%, far below the 30% levels typically associated with deep bear phases. This metric suggests that the broader market has yet to experience severe stress.
However, sentiment indicators point to mounting pressure. The Spent Output Profit Ratio hovers near neutral at 1.0, indicating that investors are neither realizing significant gains nor losses.
Perpetual futures markets have shifted decidedly bearish since July, with Cumulative Volume Delta showing sustained sell pressure across major exchanges, including Binance and Bybit.
Spot market sentiment has shifted from the strong buying pressure observed in April, which fueled the rebound from $72,000. Funding rates remain near 0.01% across exchanges, indicating a fragile equilibrium where even modest sell pressure could quickly shift sentiment bearish.
Bitcoin’s technical setup presents a binary outcome. Any relief rally faces formidable resistance at $113,700, while losing the $107,000 support opens the door to accelerated declines targeting the $95,000-$93,000 zone where substantial supply clusters await.
