Bitcoin is currently trading 6% below its $112,000 all-time high, holding steady but showing signs of exhaustion as it struggles to break into new price discovery. While price action remains strong, the market lacks the momentum needed for a decisive upward move. Macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on investor sentiment, with rising US Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve’s ongoing stance on elevated interest rates, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East all contributing to a complex and risk-sensitive environment.
According to top analyst Darkfost, while some investors were observed taking profits yesterday, the selling pressure remains relatively mild. On-chain metrics indicate that most participants continue to hold their positions, reflecting a generally bullish longer-term outlook. However, the key issue keeping Bitcoin from breaking higher appears to be weak demand.
Bitcoin has consistently held above the $100,000 level since early June, signaling that a new price equilibrium may be forming. Despite the strong performance—up 40% since the April lows—the price has struggled to break through the $112,000 all-time high, raising questions about the sustainability of the current trend. The longer BTC fails to reclaim new highs, the greater the risk of a breakdown below $100K, especially if broader macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures intensify.
Darkfost pointed to a chart comparing new supply to the over 1-year inactive supply, used to measure relative demand strength. When this ratio climbs above zero, it typically signals increasing demand. However, since the most recent local top in May, this metric has been gradually declining. Although demand remains healthy enough to absorb existing selling pressure, it’s insufficient to drive another breakout.
At present, Bitcoin appears locked in a state of balance, supported by steady holder conviction but restrained by subdued new buyer activity. If demand returns with force, a breakout toward new highs could follow. Until then, the market remains in wait-and-see mode.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $104,827, showing signs of hesitation as it consolidates just above the key support zone near $103,600. This level, which aligns with a previous all-time high, continues to act as a critical line in the sand for bulls. The 12-hour chart shows repeated tests of this support since early June, each time followed by a recovery, but without meaningful follow-through to the upside.
The 100-period moving average (green line) is providing dynamic support just above $104,200, while the 50-period MA (blue line) now acts as overhead resistance around $106,269. This squeeze between moving averages indicates a tightening range, and a breakout — up or down — could occur soon. Volume remains relatively low, which suggests a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers.
Upside remains capped by the $109,300 resistance level, which Bitcoin failed to reclaim in multiple recent attempts. A clean break above this level could reignite bullish momentum toward price discovery. However, continued failure to breach that zone, combined with global uncertainty and weakening demand, increases the risk of a breakdown below $103,600 — opening the door to a deeper correction. For now, Bitcoin holds the line, but pressure is building.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
