Over the past two weeks, the world’s leading cryptocurrency has struggled to break definitively above the $116,000 price mark while also testing the $106,000 support. As Bitcoin consolidates around $110,000, the latest on-chain analysis suggests an exciting outlook despite the recent price struggles.
Firstly, XWIN Research Japan highlights that there has been a sharp drop in Open Interest across futures exchanges since its peak established in September. For context, the open interest is the total number of outstanding futures or options contracts that have not been settled or closed.
A sharp decline in open interest is usually indicative of events referred to as “leverage wipeouts,” where speculative positions are forced out of the market. Historically, a simultaneous decline in open interest alongside the cryptocurrency’s price has often led to market resets, which typically precede sustainable price rallies as a result of growing spot demand.
Furthermore, the education and research institution references the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which tracks whether investors are predominantly selling at a profit or loss. The SOPR has reportedly found stability around 1.0, meaning that the majority of Bitcoin traders are trading around their cost basis. By extension, this points out that traders are neither in significant profits nor deep in losses.
According to XWIN Research, this is a good sign that points to the end of the previous capitulation phase, and reflects the absorption of short-term holder supply by long-term holder demand.
As all of these unfold underneath the surface, XWIN Research also postulates that liquidity might also be accumulating for the benefit of the flagship cryptocurrency. As reported by the institution, the total amount of the stablecoin ERC-20 in supply has reached an all-time high of approximately $158.8 billion. The crypto research institution speculates that if the market sentiment sees an improvement, as much as $158 billion in ERC-20 might be waiting on the sidelines to contribute upward pressure to Bitcoin’s price.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is worth about $109,918, with data from CoinMarketCap revealing a slight growth of 0.22% over the past day.
