Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment after briefly dipping below the $100,000 level on Tuesday, testing one of the most important psychological and structural supports of the cycle. The market remains tense as bulls attempt to defend this zone amid rising volatility and persistent selling pressure. Momentum has clearly slowed, and traders are now looking for signs of stabilization as the next directional move takes shape.
According to top analyst Darkfost, a major shift is unfolding beneath the surface — Bitcoin’s open interest across major centralized exchanges continues to struggle to recover. Since the mass liquidation event on October 10, when over $10 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, the use of leverage has cooled significantly. This has resulted in the largest 30-day decline in open interest of the entire cycle, signaling a widespread de-risking among futures traders.
Back on October 10, global open interest dropped by more than $10 billion within hours, one of the most severe leverage resets of the cycle. Historically, after such dramatic events, traders rebuild positions quickly as volatility cools. However, this time the rebound has been notably absent — open interest remains depressed, suggesting that market confidence is still fragile.
The ongoing correction continues to discourage over-leveraged activity, forcing traders to adopt more conservative positioning. While this has amplified short-term downside pressure, Darkfost notes that these deleveraging phases are ultimately healthy.
They wash out excessive speculation, allowing stronger hands to reaccumulate and laying the groundwork for the next sustained rally. In the medium term, this compression of leverage tends to create a more stable, organic market structure — one driven by spot demand rather than derivatives-driven momentum.
Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization after a sharp sell-off that briefly pushed prices below the critical $100,000 level earlier this week. As of now, BTC trades around $103,000, attempting to recover but facing persistent resistance from the short-term moving averages.
The chart shows that Bitcoin remains well below the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages — both now acting as dynamic resistance zones around $110,000. The 200-day MA (red) near $102,000 currently serves as the key support level, and a sustained close below it could open the door to deeper downside, potentially toward $95,000.
The recent bounce reflects short-covering and some dip-buying activity, but momentum remains weak. The market structure suggests a shift from bullish to corrective, as lower highs continue to form. For bulls to regain control, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $110,000–$112,000 region — where heavy liquidity and previous breakdown levels align.
Focus remains on whether buyers can hold the $100K–$103K zone. Losing this range would likely trigger another wave of liquidations, while a successful defense could provide the base for a mid-term recovery rally. The market remains fragile, with sentiment still leaning cautious.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
