For context, the URPD model tracks the distribution of Bitcoin’s supply across different price levels, effectively highlighting where coins last changed hands. Heavy accumulation within a narrow range often translates into robust support, as holders who bought at those levels are less likely to sell at a loss. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $116,000 after a slight retracement following the price rebound on Friday. In the event of a further correction, prices are likely to retest the $104,000–$108,000 range, which currently holds the largest cluster of realized prices below the present spot market price, underscoring the importance of this support zone in the short-term outlook.
Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago, and the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.
Within 15 minutes of this speech, Darkfost noted that nearly $300 million flowed into Bitcoin futures products, pushing Binance’s BTC Open Interest to about $13.3 billion. The spike reflects investors’ positioning for potential interest rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September after Powell’s hint of potential easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $115,850, reflecting a price gain of 2.25% in the past 24 hours despite recent gains.
