On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s open interest variation fell to negative 25 in the aftermath of the flash crash, its lowest reading in 2025. This decline highlights a market that has been cleansed of excessive leverage, but the question is whether this points to a major rebound or the start of a deeper correction.
This metric had previously reached similar lows during BTC’s last major correction earlier in the year, when it dropped to around negative 25. However, the last time the Bitcoin open interest dropped below this negative 25 level was in mid-2023.
Each time open interest collapsed to this degree, Bitcoin’s price found support soon after and began a steady recovery in the following weeks. This recurring pattern suggests that extreme deleveraging often precedes the formation of local or macro bottoms.
A similar performance and comparable rebound would project BTC’s price to undergo a steady 40% to 50% increase over the next multiple months. This steady increase would send Bitcoin price action back above $150,000 by early 2026.
