Ostium Research’s latest weekly note opened with Bitcoin under pressure after a swift selloff into the new week, describing “a mass liquidation event” that pushed price as low as $111,761, after rejection near resistance in the mid-$117,000s.
Two structural inflection zones anchor the bearish risk: “Acceptance below $107k on a weekly close would open up more downside into $99k,” whereas on the topside “the weekly high at $115.3k… is at least revisited some time later in the week.”
On the daily timeframe, the August open at $115.7k is the pivot the market must reclaim to reassert momentum. As the authors put it, “that August open at $115.7k [is] a key level to flip into support to resume bullishness.”
The immediate battleground is the prior all-time high at $112k, where “a reclaim of $112k as support” would tilt probabilities toward a higher low and force shorts to cover into a move back through $115.7k. Their base case, however, is for additional chop “between $112k-$115k before a second push lower below today’s low,” which will determine whether the market undercuts the June swing at $107k or marks out a bottom sooner.
Tactically, Ostium lays out both long and short triggers with unusual clarity. On the long side: “a sweep of today’s low early this week and then a reclaim of $112k as support,” riding momentum “back into the weekly high.” On the short side, they float what they call “a really nice short setup… a sharp v-reversal… back above the weekly high… before… rejecting and breaking back below $115.3k,” which would then target “$112k and lower.” In other words, a squeeze-then-fade path that punishes both late longs and late shorts.
This informs their near-term expectation that “the next leg lower or second liquidation event this week [could] be a high probability low,” followed by a retest of $115.3k that will act as the tape’s verdict on whether another down-leg or a bear-trap reversal is in play into quarter-end.
Whether today’s flush proves to be prelude to capitulation or the trap before new highs, Ostium’s bottom line is clear: “we move much higher from early October” unless those weekly thresholds are accepted lower.
At press time, BTC traded at $113,002.
