The time for optimistic predictions about the Bitcoin price reaching a new record is swiftly running out. Many analysts initially predicted that the market’s leading cryptocurrency would achieve a milestone of $200,000 this year.
However, as time progresses, these forecasts are being adjusted, with some traders on crypto prediction platforms lowering their price targets. Despite this, the potential for new all-time highs (ATHs) still lingers for the remainder of the year.
This price movement follows the release of softer private payrolls data, which has bolstered expectations for potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Over the years from 2013 to 2024, the average Q4 return for Bitcoin has been an impressive 85%. Notably, in 2020, Bitcoin saw an increase of 168% in the final quarter, while in 2017, it skyrocketed by 215%. Even further back to 2013, Bitcoin posted an extraordinary return of 480%.
Looking at the data, October and November have historically marked significant turning points for the Bitcoin price. November stands out as the most lucrative, with an average return of 46%, followed closely by October at 22%.
However, the window for achieving higher price levels is quickly closing, as evidenced by a mere 22% chance of reaching $150,000 this year and only a 5% chance of hitting $200,000.
Despite the optimism, Motley Fool analysts have noted that market sentiment has soured since August. Prediction markets reflect this shift, indicating a 6% probability of Bitcoin slipping below $70,000. Moreover, there’s a 2% chance that the Bitcoin price could dip below $50,000.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
