The Bitcoin price has recently experienced a significant uptick in volatility, positively impacting its performance as it recovered to $110,000 after opening the week at $107,000.
Analysts at The Bull Theory, on the other hand, have identified key indicators suggesting a shift in Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle, with potential for the ongoing bullish trend to extend into 2026.
According to their analysis, Bitcoin is transitioning from a four-year cycle to a five-year cycle, with the next peak anticipated around the second quarter of 2026. This change is attributed to deeper structural shifts within the global economy.
Governments are increasingly rolling over debt for longer periods, business cycles are extending, and liquidity waves are moving through the financial system at a slower pace.
The easing signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell in the third quarter of 2025, such as indications of ending balance-sheet contraction, are expected to impact markets well into early 2026, rather than having an immediate effect.
Japan’s new Prime Minister has also initiated an economic package aimed at combating inflation, which is expected to further contribute to global liquidity.
Despite the current market conditions, retail interest in Bitcoin remains subdued, with Google Trends showing significantly lower search interest compared to 2021 levels.
This indicates that the market is currently in a phase of quiet expansion rather than widespread mania, and retail euphoria—which typically signals the end of market cycles—has yet to materialize.
While the four-year Halving model remains relevant, the analysts assert that it is now being reshaped by macro liquidity dynamics, institutional pacing, and elongated global cycles. Consequently, the true peak of this bull run may align more closely with Q2 2026 rather than 2025.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
