Over the last 10 weeks, stocks of Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCTCs) have fallen sharply, shedding between 50% and 80% of their value. This divergence shows an unusual pattern, effectively creating a “1:4 ratio” in cycle behavior.
The chart below, of MetaPlanet’s stock, shows repeated selloff cycles that appear far more compressed and extreme than Bitcoin’s price corrections in the past 18 months or so.
Interestingly, only 41.7% of MetaPlanet’s drawdowns have directly lined up with Bitcoin’s corrections. Out of the 12 mini-bear markets identified, just 5 occurred in sync with BTC’s declines. The majority (7 out of 12) were unrelated to Bitcoin and were instead caused by company-specific factors. According to Moss, these factors include warrant exercises, fundraising activities, and compression of the Bitcoin premium that MetaPlanet trades at compared to its BTC holdings.
Essentially, what this means is that instead of BTC 4-year cycles, BTCTCs are now more like 4 cycles in 1 year.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
