Bitcoin is once again trading at a critical support level after failing to sustain momentum above the $106,000 mark. Bulls initially celebrated a short-lived rally into resistance, which sparked hope of a breakout—but the excitement was quickly overshadowed by a swift retrace. The move back into the $103,000–$104,000 demand zone has reintroduced fear and caution across the market, with investors growing uneasy in the face of mounting macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.
Middle East tensions and rising global uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on sentiment, keeping volatility elevated and market participants on edge. The current environment has become especially difficult to navigate, as conflicting signals and rapid reversals create an unstable trading landscape.
Bitcoin continues to show resilience above the $100,000 level, a psychological and technical milestone that has held since early June. Despite this strength, the market lacks the momentum needed to break through the $112,000 all-time high and push into price discovery. Instead, Bitcoin remains trapped within a multi-week range, as macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
Rising US Treasury yields, persistent inflation concerns, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady have all contributed to tightening financial conditions. On top of that, growing instability in the Middle East adds another layer of volatility to an already cautious market. These factors have created a difficult environment for risk assets, especially those like Bitcoin that are seeking a clear directional move.
Price action over the past week has taken Bitcoin back to the lower end of its trading range. The $103,000–$104,000 zone is emerging as a critical support level. While the range has held for now, the inability to reclaim higher resistance levels near $109,000 raises the risk of further downside.
Bitcoin’s ability to maintain this $100K+ structure is pivotal. Without a decisive break above the ATH, and in the absence of fresh bullish catalysts, the possibility of extended consolidation—or even downside—remains a valid scenario through the end of the month.
Bitcoin continues to face strong resistance, with the price failing to hold above the $106,000 level and now testing key support around $103,000. The 4-hour chart shows multiple rejections near the $109,300 zone, establishing it as a critical supply area. After briefly reclaiming the 50 and 100-period SMAs earlier this week, BTC has broken below all major moving averages once again, reflecting increasing short-term bearish pressure.
The recent breakdown from the $103,600 support area—a level that had acted as a strong pivot since early June—raises concern. This zone has now been lost and retested, suggesting potential continuation lower if bulls don’t step in soon. Volume also spiked on the latest drop, indicating that sellers are growing more aggressive.
Below current levels, $102,000 remains the next immediate zone of interest. A flush of liquidity under this level could offer a chance for a reversal if absorbed quickly, but if the price fails to reclaim $103,600 soon, bearish momentum may intensify. On the upside, bulls must first reclaim the 100-SMA around $105,870 to regain control of short-term trend structure.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
