At its current level just above $113,500, that jump would take BTC up to about $189,000. It’s a simple idea with big implications.
Many in the crypto crowd like how clear it is. You look at the size of the cash and gold markets. You pick some modest targets. Then you do the math. It shows that winning tiny slivers of those pools could be very rewarding. You don’t need a blanket take-over of every money market to make a strong case for Bitcoin as an investment.
A TAM model starts at the top. It sizes up the biggest buckets—cash, deposits, gold—then assumes what share a newcomer might grab. It’s common in startup pitches.
Here, CoinShares leans on data from the World Gold Council, Trading Economics and Glassnode to keep the numbers fresh. The big pools aren’t static, but they do highlight the scale of what’s out there.
This method skips over many real hurdles. Regulation could slow adoption. New digital coins might offer competing features. Shifts in interest rates can shrink or swell M2 overnight. Even gold’s market value can dip if miners sell or central banks offload bars. That makes any model’s timeline shaky.
Based on projections, Bitcoin’s share of these markets might creep up over the next decade. That assumes steady gains in user trust, clearer rules from governments and smoother ways for big institutions to buy and hold crypto.
If that path holds, hitting 2% of global liquidity and 5% of gold could be realistic. But if policies shift or fresh tech disappoints, the climb could stall.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
