The lower bound of that cluster repeatedly supported rebounds until July 31, when BTC broke lower into the air gap. Historically, such low-liquidity ranges can morph into accumulation zones as buyers step in at a perceived discount.
The report compared entity-adjusted URPD snapshots from July 31 and Aug. 4 to gauge dip-buying.
Even so, the $110,000-$116,000 band remains light in aggregate supply. Time spent accumulating here could potentially build a platform for the next move higher.
The rally has yet to reclaim the cost basis of holders with amounts of one week and one month old, now with a decisive resistance near $116,900. A sustained break above would signal demand regaining control, while a failure raises the risk of a deeper test of the previous all-time high range around $110,000.
According to the report, price sits in a “warm” but not overheated regime and remains above the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $106,000. This price level is a threshold that has historically divided near-term bullish and bearish phases in Bitcoin bull markets.
STH supply in profit has slipped from 100% to 70% during the drawdown, consistent with the midline of prior bull cycles. The share of STH spent volume in profit has cooled to 45%, below neutral, implying a balanced market with neither side dominant.
On Aug. 5, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US saw a 1,500 BTC outflow, the largest bout of ETF sell-side pressure since April 2025. Historically, these episodes have been brief, but monitoring persistence is key.
In derivatives, perpetual funding rates have slipped back below 0.1%, a neutral zone that indicates cooling speculative appetite and tempered upside conviction in the near term.
Taken together, Bitcoin appears locked in the $110,000-$116,000 corridor, accumulating supply and waiting for demand sufficient to retake $116,900 and reassert the uptrend.
