Data from Checkonchain showed that 99.82 % of circulating Bitcoin sat above cost on May 21, up from 74.37% during the early April drawdown. The short-term cohort logged an even steeper swing after its supply in profit collapsed from 89.98% at the beginning of the year to 2.07% on April 6, then rebounded to 98.51% by May 21.
Whiplash like this usually indicates a heavy retail chase, but other data shows the price spike was powered by a different engine this time. ETFs and derivatives are the crucial offset here.
The 30-day mean is 0.0045%, roughly half the January peak and far from levels that sparked liquidations in past cycles. A mild premium paired with record open interest is the hallmark of basis trades: managers seek spot exposure through ETFs while shorting perpetual or dated futures, collecting the spread rather than betting on price direction.
Spot exchanges, by contrast, show restraint. Coinbase and Binance order books recovered only a fraction of the depth lost during April’s sell-off, and aggregate taker volume sits below March averages. That split, heavy institutional absorption against lukewarm retail turnover, helps explain why the price climbed without the retail euphoria widely seen near previous tops. It also alters the meaning of those near-perfect profitability readings.
Similar levels preceded swift drawdowns in 2017 and early 2021 as unhedged newcomers cashed out. Today, a large share of the profitable supply sits inside mandates that can’t be liquidated as easily as spot positions; they unwind through creations and hedge rolls.
However, none of it rules out turbulence in the short term. Profit saturation gives every holder an easy decision to sell if macro news sours and the short-term cohort still contains retail wallets that bought Bitcoin’s spring breakout. A sharp shrink in ETF inflows or a flip of CME’s annualized basis into backwardation would strip away the balance-sheet bid currently anchoring price.
Funding above 0.02% on a multi-day stretch would likewise show that long leverage is replacing spot absorption, reviving the liquidation spiral risk that plagued earlier booms. For now, though, the structure looks orderly: demand channels through regulated products, hedges keep margin costs contained, and on-chain settlement reflects large transfers between custodians rather than exchange flows.
Bitcoin’s new ATH stands on a foundation significantly different than the 2017 or 2021 run-ups. Almost every coin is above cost, but retail investors, the cohort most exposed in past blow-offs, are no longer steering the market. Instead, large trading desks, ETFs, and derivatives traders hold the wheel, financing positions with leverage, and parking collateral with custodians. That lineup does not make Bitcoin bulletproof, but it eases the odds of a flash crash unless those same desks pull liquidity simultaneously.
