Bitcoin is holding above the critical $100,000 level following a weekend marked by heightened geopolitical tensions. The US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities triggered panic across global markets, pushing BTC to a low of approximately $98,200 before a sharp rebound. The swift drop below six figures rattled investor sentiment and led to a spike in volatility as traders scrambled to adjust positions.
According to top analyst Axel Adler, the composite Sentiment Index fell to a monthly low of -20% over the past 24 hours, reflecting the bearish pressure dominating the market. Taker order volume showed a clear negative delta during the breakdown, indicating strong seller predominance as BTC breached the $100K level. Simultaneously, open interest declined sharply, suggesting that many participants were forced to reduce leveraged positions through liquidations.
Bitcoin is facing a crucial test as it attempts to hold above the $100,000 level after briefly dipping below it over the weekend. The sharp move lower, triggered by geopolitical turmoil after U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, fueled panic selling and forced leveraged traders to unwind positions. However, bulls have so far defended the psychological level, and Bitcoin’s price has rebounded, suggesting that this area may be forming a new equilibrium after weeks of choppy consolidation.
Since early June, Bitcoin has mostly remained above the $100K mark, yet the inability to reclaim the $112K all-time high signals a lack of bullish momentum. Macroeconomic headwinds continue to weigh on the market, with rising US Treasury yields, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and heightened global tensions shaping investor behavior. Despite the recovery, the risk of another breakdown remains if BTC fails to reclaim the $103,600 and $109,300 resistance levels soon.
Adler notes that this partial rebound in sentiment and softening of the negative volume delta reflect growing interest in catching potential upside, but the market remains on edge. As long as Bitcoin holds above $100K, a fast recovery remains possible. However, any escalation in global conflict or further macroeconomic deterioration could undermine confidence and lead to a deeper correction. The next few days will likely determine whether Bitcoin resumes its uptrend or gives in to broader market pressure.
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin is facing increasing pressure after failing to reclaim the $103,600 resistance zone. Following the recent rejection near $104K, BTC is now trading around $101,470, signaling a fragile attempt by bulls to hold the $100K psychological level. The recent dip to $98,200 marked the lowest point in weeks, triggering a spike in selling volume before a modest recovery. This area remains a crucial support for the short-term trend.
Bitcoin now sits below its 50-day moving average (currently at $105,003), a sign that momentum has shifted against the bulls. Meanwhile, the 100-day and 200-day moving averages at $95,829 and $95,970, respectively, may serve as fallback support levels in case of another breakdown. The lower highs forming since early June reinforce the bearish structure unless BTC can close decisively above the $103,600–$109,300 resistance range.
Volume remains relatively low on the recovery, suggesting that the bounce may lack conviction unless stronger buying interest emerges. If BTC fails to reclaim the 50-day MA soon, the path toward $94K becomes more likely. On the upside, bulls must flip $103,600 into support to restore market confidence and reopen the door for a retest of all-time highs.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
