This event shifted a slow decline into a sharp drop, clearing leveraged longs and forcing the market to face the on-chain support below the price.
Coinbase data showed the extent of the move in the US after liquidations began. Bitcoin peaked at $103,988 before falling to $95,900, last closing near $96,940: barely 2% above $95,000, the on-chain HODLers Wall. The market fell from a 5% cushion above the wall to nearly touching it.
The on-chain wall’s structure remains, but price behavior has changed. Cost-basis distribution shows that approximately 65% of all invested USD in Bitcoin is above $95,000, with every short-term holder’s coin priced there or higher, and 30% of the long-term holder supply in the same range.
This isn’t the thin, speculative air of 2017’s top or the initial 2021 peak. It’s similar to the denser “second-wind” structure of late 2021, where seasoned holders and new entrants shared the topping zone, and resolution took months.
That density explains why spot has dragged for so long. The US election rally last year pulled a broad swath of buyers into the $95k–$115k range and trapped them through a year of sideways trading.
With the short-term holder cost basis already breached at about $112,000, every failed attempt to recover that level trapped more recent buyers underwater while long-term holders sat on a layered cost-basis ladder just below the highs.
The latest cascade exposed that structure: once futures longs started to unwind, there was very little fresh demand between the $106k-$118k resistance area that Glassnode flagged and the psychological $100k handle, and ETF demand was no longer strong enough to absorb forced selling.
The key difference now is who’s selling. In 2017 and 2021, supply near the top was mostly from short-term holders. After those peaks, older, in-profit coins rotated out. Then, unrealized losses reached 15% of the market cap within six weeks, filling old air pockets.
In 2025, unrealized losses are about half what they were in January 2022, despite BTC trading under $100k and touching the wall.
Glassnode data shows STHs have been underwater against their $111,900 cost basis since October. Their realized profit-loss ratio fell below 0.21 near $98,000, meaning over 80% of the value they moved there was sold at a loss.
This is classic capitulation by top buyers, not a broad LTH exit. Checkonchain confirms: almost half the coins recently sold came from high-entry, recent buyers exiting as the market hovers near the wall.
That’s why $95k still matters. It was a theoretical bull cycle “fail point”; now the price nears it. New Coinbase data shows that BTC’s $95,900 low places it deep within the long-term holder zone, where most coins remain unmoved. If this group stays firm, the wall can absorb forced STH and derivatives selling.
However, if Bitcoin cleanly loses $95,000, the roadmap is reasonably clear. The first shelf sits around $85,000, the “tariff tantrum” low, where spot hammered out a local bottom during earlier policy jitters and briefly refilled part of last year’s air pocket.
Below that is the True Market Mean at $82,000, which sits directly over the residual gap from the US election pump and would be a natural magnet for a deeper flush. Only beyond those levels does the large, older demand band between $50,000 and $75,000 re-enter the conversation.
There is another key difference from 2022 that the current price action has not undone.
Back then, the loss of the $45k base of that cycle’s HODLers Wall was swift and brutal: STH cost basis gave way at $54k, the wall at $45k offered almost no support, and the market spilled straight down to the True Market Mean around $36k, intersecting a multi-year air-pocket that went all the way back to the start of the cycle.
In this cycle, the potential fall from the wall to the mean is much shorter, and the underlying demand from the 2024 range is closer in price. A move from $95k to the low-$80ks would hurt, but it would not recreate the kind of deep, multi-year bear that followed the 2021 peaks.
The short-term backdrop remains fragile. ETF flows tilt negative, redemptions replacing the steady inflows that supported Bitcoin for most of the year. Perpetual funding and open interest have declined since October’s leverage flush. Options markets now pay an 11% implied volatility premium for puts over calls, signaling traders are hedging for downside.
What happens next depends less on short-term traders than on the holders who own the bulk of the supply above and just below $95k.
If they hold their nerve, the wall can continue to act as a floor, giving the market time to rebuild demand. If they crack, the path through $85k and down toward the $82k mean is already drawn on the on-chain chart.
