The study measured the price impact using Kyle’s Lambda across all BTC-USDT markets and found that corporate buying seldom moved the benchmark by more than a slight amount.
Yet, daily purchases by these firms rarely accounted for more than incidental slippage, because many transactions relied on structured orders, over-the-counter swaps, or in-kind share exchanges that kept volume off public books.
Twenty One Capital, for instance, secured its initial 42,000 BTC through stock-for-coin deals with Tether and Bitfinex, a path that did not result in spot-market transactions.
Keyrock identified six sessions this year in which acquisitions from established buyers, such as Strategy or Metaplanet, drove Bitcoin’s intraday move above 3%. It also cited a single Strategy tranche from late last year that resulted in a 9.05% swing.
The report also noted that these bursts proved exceptional rather than typical because most treasuries stagger orders or hedge with derivatives to contain slippage.
The report priced the treasury company cohort at an aggregate 73% premium to the net value of their coins, which bolsters access to cheap capital but amplifies refinancing risk if sentiment turns.
Keyrock counted $9.48 billion in outstanding debt and $3.35 billion in preferred equity across the group, with large maturities clustering in 2027 and 2028. The report stated that firms with thin operating cash flow now rely on at-the-market stock issuance to service their coupons.
Debt-funded accumulation accelerated after November 2024, when copycats followed Strategy’s model and public offerings proliferated across jurisdictions from Japan to Brazil. Strategy’s 11-fold increase in Bitcoin-per-share since 2020 set a benchmark many newer entrants seek to match.
The report concluded that, for now, corporate buying represents a limited but episodic catalyst rather than a constant driver of Bitcoin price action, mainly because structured execution keeps order flow discreet.
The researchers warned that concentration risk could intensify volatility if large holders adjust their Strategy, as 82% of treasury holdings are held on a single balance sheet.
