Bitcoin (BTC) treasury companies are facing a rather critical situation as their market premium over underlying BTC holdings erodes amid falling volatility and a sharp slowdown in new purchases. Notably, monthly BTC purchases by these companies have crashed by 97% since November 2024, reflecting a highly cautious market approach in recent months. However, recent data from CryptoQuant suggests the need for an immediate change in strategy.
Currently, however, volatility has compressed far below 0.4 log daily return annualized, reaching its lowest level since 2020. The flattening volatility curve has coincided with a steady decline in mNAV, which has slipped back toward 1.25. This narrowing premium suggests investors no longer see treasury companies as offering meaningful leverage over simply holding Bitcoin directly.
Without the “fuel” of price swings, Bitcoin treasury firms struggle to expand their holdings in ways that justify a premium valuation. While there were isolated bursts of buying in late 2024 and early 2025, overall activity remains muted. Correspondingly, Strategy’s mNAV has been trending downward since the turn of 2025, even as BTC itself has traded in a relatively elevated price range compared to recent years. The data suggests that when treasuries buy aggressively, investor enthusiasm pushes mNAV higher, reinforcing the cycle of premium issuance and BTC accumulation. Julio Moreno explains that for the mNAV premium to persist, a rebound in BTC volatility and renewed demand through large-scale purchases are immediately needed. Until then, treasury companies may find it increasingly difficult to justify valuations above their Bitcoin net asset value, forcing investors to consider a direct exposure to Bitcoin for returns rather than on corporate strategy. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $115,810, reflecting a 4.72% gain in the past week.
