Bitcoin is seeing some relief after dipping below the $110,000 mark earlier this week, but risks remain firmly on the horizon. While the rebound has sparked cautious optimism among traders, many analysts warn that BTC could continue to lose momentum if selling pressure persists. The broader market has entered a fragile phase where investor sentiment is mixed, and short-term direction remains uncertain.
Top analyst Darkfost highlights a critical on-chain development: the number of transactions coming from wholecoiners—investors holding at least one full BTC—has dropped to its lowest level of the current cycle. This cohort has long been viewed as a significant gauge of market conviction, given the symbolic and economic weight of holding a full Bitcoin.
An increase in their exchange inflows often signals a shift in conviction. It can suggest that these investors are more willing to take profits or reduce exposure during uncertain market conditions, adding potential selling pressure. On the other hand, when deposits from wholecoiners decline, it typically reflects stronger conviction to hold. This mechanical reduction in supply available on exchanges helps to ease selling pressure and can create a more stable environment for BTC.
This dynamic ties directly to Bitcoin’s scarcity effect. As adoption grows and the supply becomes more distributed, the total number of wholecoiners tends to stabilize or even decline. Each whole Bitcoin becomes increasingly rare to acquire, further magnifying the influence and symbolic importance of this group. For analysts, tracking wholecoiner flows provides an essential lens into the conviction and sentiment driving long-term market trends.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,242, showing a slight recovery after testing the $110K support zone earlier this week. The chart reveals that BTC has managed to bounce off its recent lows, indicating short-term resilience. However, momentum remains capped by resistance levels overhead.
The 50-day moving average (blue line) is trending near $114K, aligning as immediate resistance. This suggests that bulls will need strong buying pressure to reclaim higher levels. Beyond that, the key hurdle sits around $123,217, the recent peak marked in mid-August. A breakout above this level would likely confirm bullish continuation and could open the door toward retesting $125K–$127K levels.
On the downside, the 100-day moving average (green line) near $111K is providing a cushion. A failure to hold above this level would expose BTC to deeper corrections, with the 200-day moving average (red line) around $104K acting as the next significant support.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
