Veteran trader Peter Brandt on Thursday offered a much slower timetable for Bitcoin’s next big rally, saying the cryptocurrency may not hit $200,000 until around the third quarter 2029.
According to his post on X, Brandt remains a long-term supporter of Bitcoin but warned the climb to $200,000 will take time.
Bitcoin reached a fresh high of $125,100 on October 5. Since then it has slid more than 25%, erasing roughly $710 billion in market value.
Full disclosure folks Of my maximum ever Bitcoin position I still own 40%, at a price 1/20th of Saylor’s avg buy. I am a long-term bull on Bitcoin. This dumping is the best thing that could happen to Bitcoin. The next bull market in Bitcoin should take us to $200,000 or so. That…
Brandt referenced past commodity patterns to make his point. He compared Bitcoin’s behavior to the 1970s soybean market, which saw a rapid top followed by a sharp fall when supply outpaced demand. In that episode, soybeans dropped about 50% after the peak, Brandt reminded followers.
Its Bull Score Index fell to 20 out of 100 last week, a level that signals weak spot demand, negative price momentum, and thinner stablecoin liquidity.
The platform also pointed out that Bitcoin slipped below its 365-day moving average, a technical mark that had held through earlier corrections in this cycle.
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards warned that institutional selling has been unusually heavy, saying he has “never seen this much institutional selling as a percentage of Coinbase Volume in all history.”
That flow, according to several analysts, has made the present reset deeper than prior pullbacks during the same rally.
Brandt’s outlook stands in contrast with more optimistic calls from the crypto industry. Reports have disclosed that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and market veteran Tom Lee were among those who reiterated hopes for $200,000 before the year closed.
Despite Bitcoin’s current sluggish state, Brandt described the recent dumping as beneficial. He argued a cleanse now could clear excesses and set up stronger moves later.
Other well-known figures have given much sooner targets — some expected $200,000 by year-end, and a few, including ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and Coinbase chief Brian Armstrong, have forecasted $1 million by 2030.
Other analysts pointed to historical patterns where painful corrections were followed by renewed gains, though they added that timing those turns is difficult.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
