While the gap is small, its persistence over the previous weeks shows subtle demand preferences and liquidity flows that are often overlooked when analyzing the entire market.
Between June 29 and July 3 (09:55 UTC), data from TradingView covering 5-minute candles on both pairs showed that BTCUSD traded higher than its USDT equivalent 97.7% of the time. The spread peaked at 0.103% on June 30 during the European morning and inverted briefly just a handful of times. Most negative prints clustered around 21:00 UTC, which could indicate lower fiat inflows or higher stablecoin usage in late US trading.
The spread narrowed sharply during this morning’s breakout. As Bitcoin surged past $110,000 around 09:40 UTC, the premium compressed to just 0.013%. This suggests liquidity rapidly shifted toward the BTC-USDT book, or arbitrageurs moved quickly to close the gap as order books thinned. This is in line with historical breakout patterns, where volatility forces alignment between trading pairs to avoid slippage.
Intraday patterns further confirm the role regional flows have in shaping trading. BTCUSD consistently outpaced USDT between 08:00 and 14:00 UTC, core European trading hours. This points to a modest tilt toward fiat-based execution from desks operating in jurisdictions where US dollar rails are preferred or more accessible.
While a 0.03% spread might seem trivial, it accumulates across billions in notional volume. On a day with $10 billion traded, the gross opportunity from such a spread amounts to $3 million. The data shows that even as the market moves with near-mechanical efficiency, there are still slivers of information in how fiat and stablecoin pairs diverge, especially during high-velocity moments like today’s breakout above $110,000.
