According to Hougan, while Bitcoin halvings once played a pivotal role in driving supply shocks and fueling bull markets, their influence is waning.
He also noted that the broader macro environment has also shifted. Interest rates no longer exert the same downward pressure on crypto markets as they did in previous cycles.
Hougan added that clearer regulatory structures are emerging across the crypto industry. This, combined with greater institutional oversight, has helped reduce the extreme volatility and collapse risk that once plagued the market.
Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions, from pension funds to national account platforms, are only just beginning to offer crypto access to their clients.
Reflecting on that miss, Ju stated that the traditional accumulation-distribution dynamic—where whales sell into retail demand—no longer holds. Instead, institutional investors and corporate treasuries are emerging as the dominant buyers, reshaping market behavior and reducing speculative churn.
As a result, these deeper structural shifts are challenging long-held assumptions about Bitcoin.
Considering this, Hougan suggested that the market is moving away from boom-bust cycles toward more consistent, long-term growth.
While he acknowledges the potential for short-term volatility, he sees 2026 as a year of strong performance driven by lasting adoption trends rather than reflexive market patterns.
