Traders watched a decline of about 1.8% earlier that pushed the price near $103,400 and it briefly touched $102,850 during the move.
Based on historical readings, that 13 area has lined up with market lows in mid-2021 and at several moments across 2024. Reports show that when SSR fell to similar levels, liquidity quietly built up and buying followed after a period of low volatility.
Liquidity Pattern Has Appeared Before Every Bitcoin Surge — And It’s Back
The second metric Moreno highlights comes from Binance. On that exchange, stablecoin balances are rising while Bitcoin reserves are shrinking. In plain terms: more cash-like tokens sit on the exchange and fewer coins are being held there.
That pattern has appeared only a handful of times since 2020, according to the data he referenced. Each time, the movement suggested capital waiting on the sidelines and holders moving coins off exchanges into longer-term storage.
Some capital rotated back to stocks. At the same time, large holders took profits after recent highs, and momentum cooled. That mix shows how macro events can shift flows without immediately turning into crypto buying.
Moreno warns this liquidity zone acts like a final structural support. If the metrics break down decisively, it could signal a deeper reset before any sustained recovery.
In that scenario, buying would likely be delayed and volatility would rise. This is not a guaranteed outcome, but it is a clear risk that traders watch closely.
Based on reports and on-chain signals, Moreno believes the risk-to-reward favors buyers at these levels. He points to the built-up stablecoin supply and falling exchange BTC reserves as reasons for that view.
Historical patterns suggest the last three months of the year often bring gains for Bitcoin, but past behavior does not promise future returns.
For now, the indicators show capital parked in stablecoins and fewer coins available on major exchanges. That creates a setup where fresh buying could push the market higher quickly if sentiment turns.
Yet the opposite is possible: a break below these levels would reshape the cycle and force many participants to rethink positions. Markets will decide which path comes next.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
