Bitwise Asset Management’s latest 32-page study, The Investment Case for XRP, applies a capital-asset-pricing-style framework to the embattled payments token and concludes that, under its most optimistic assumptions, it could trade at $29.32 by 2030. The figure is the output of what the authors label the “Max Case”, in which the token “secures a modest but meaningful slice of the multi-trillion payments and tokenization use cases” and enjoys lower volatility than in previous cycles.
At the core of the forecast is a customised CAPM equation, RXRP = e^(–κ·σ) (α + β·Rm), which discounts expected returns for volatility before layering the specific alpha and its historical beta of roughly 1.92 to the broader crypto market. Three regimes are modelled. In the Bear Scenario, an alpha of –50 percent and a 147 percent volatility assumption drive the price to $0.13.
The baseline Bull Scenario, with zero alpha and 89 percent volatility, yields $12.68. By contrast, the Max Case assigns a one-percent alpha and trims volatility to 75 percent, producing an annualised return of 46 percent and the headline 2030 price target of $29.32. As the report puts it, “RXRP = 0.47 ∙ (1% + 1.92 ∙ 60%), … placing [it] at roughly $29.30 by 2030.”
At press time, XRP traded at $2.14.
