The optimism follows a surge in derivatives positioning and ETF inflows, suggesting that institutional momentum may be reshaping the cycle’s upper bound rather than simply fueling another speculative rally.
On Derive.xyz, options traders have already made up their minds and believe the flagship digital asset is trending upwards.
According to data shared with CryptoSlate, contracts priced for expiry before the end of October show an aggressive skew toward the upside, implying expectations of a move as high as $150,000.
Dean Dawson, Derive’s head of research, says the setup reflects more than optimism. He noted:
“Bitcoin volatility is poised for a breakout. Implied volatilities across 14, 30, and 90-day expiries have surged to their highest levels in the past 30 days, pointing to increased anticipation of big moves ahead.”
That movement, however, isn’t being imagined in isolation. It’s being priced against macro reality, particularly the near-unanimous expectation of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Polymarket traders place the odds at around 90%, and that probability has rippled through every liquidity-sensitive asset class.
Rate cuts reduce the real return on cash and lift the appeal of higher-beta assets like Bitcoin. The data shows that volatility follows liquidity, and liquidity, for now, is turning back on.
That renewed liquidity is most visible in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which continue to serve as the most transparent window into institutional sentiment.
So far this month, the 12 funds have attracted over $5 billion in new capital and are on pace to surpass the $6.49 billion record set last November, when Bitcoin first broke the $100,000 mark.
Supporting this view, CryptoQuant noted that the Coinbase Premium Index , a gauge of US institutional demand , has stayed positive for 42 consecutive days, underscoring sustained accumulation by regulated investors.
The takeaway is that when structured investment vehicles attract capital, BTC are quietly removed from circulation, tightening the float. If the pattern holds, today’s inflow momentum could propel Bitcoin toward $130,000 to $150,000 without a speculative mania ever materializing.
According to the firm:
“[While] these transfers could be related to internal exchanges movements, however, the combination of increasing buy-side volumes, as well as the reduction in exchange balances supports the validity of this observation.”
Moreover, the asset management firm reported that realized profits among short-term holders reached just $3.07 billion last week. Notably, this is less than a third of what was seen at the 2021 peak.
In other words, the market is moving up without people rushing to sell. Coins are disappearing from exchanges, but not flooding back when prices rise. This represents a textbook setup for supply compression and, by extension, price acceleration.
Beyond crypto-specific data, the global environment is quietly reinforcing the foundations of Bitcoin’s potential rally.
Gold, long considered a traditional hedge, has surged 50.03% year-to-date, outpacing Bitcoin’s performance thus far. Yet that strength has split investor opinion.
Either way, the liquidity outlook favors both assets. Central banks appear poised to maintain easier monetary settings, including lower rates, potential yield-curve controls, and expanded balance sheets, which could result in capital flooding the markets. Liquidity often migrates to the edges of institutional risk mandates, where Bitcoin increasingly resides.
As such, investors on both sides of the “store-of-value” divide could converge toward the same behavior. Gold reallocators may rotate into digital assets seeking asymmetric upside, while traditional allocators chasing beta will still find Bitcoin supported by the same liquidity tide.
Ultimately, both narratives converge on the same destination: renewed capital inflows into digital assets, driven by a global search for protection in an era of structural monetary expansion.
