In an interview published on October 4, Steven McClurg, co-founder and CIO of Canary Capital, sketched an aggressive outlook for a prospective US spot XRP exchange-traded fund while mapping the broader contours of a crypto-ETF market he believes will consolidate around a small number of large-cap assets.
“I may have changed my mind. I may have been a little bearish,” McClurg said when asked whether $5 billion in the first month still felt realistic. “I’m gonna hold to that number because… if it’s $10 billion, then I’m still right.”
He added that day-one demand could be unusually thick: “If it was a billion in one day, I think XRP does two or three billion day one.” For context, he recalled that the first US bitcoin futures ETF launched with “over a billion dollars in inflows” on day one, placing it among the largest ETF debuts on record.
The Canary Capital executive framed the coming wave of crypto ETFs as broad but not limitless. While some commentators have speculated about dozens or even a hundred listed products across digital assets, McClurg emphasized the constraints of “generic listing standards” and real-world demand. “There’s only about 14 to 15 assets that are going to qualify under the generic listing standards currently and I think maybe another five to 10 after that,” he said, drawing an analogy to the precious-metals complex in which only a handful of commodities command sustainable ETF interest. “I don’t think that more than, say, 25 are going to be relevant.”
McClurg expects asset concentration to mirror what has emerged in spot bitcoin and ether ETFs. Asked whether baskets will win over single-asset funds, he answered that some large-caps will stand on their own. “Things like probably Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Solana will—each one of those will probably have more assets than any one basket. But after those four I think baskets are the next.” He also confirmed that Canary is developing an “American-made” crypto index theme—“you may have seen the filing”—and, while declining to discuss weights before index publication, acknowledged that XRP would be included.
The conversation repeatedly returned to regulatory coordination and timing—especially amid the federal government shutdown that began shortly before the interview. McClurg said the shutdown had already sidelined “non-essential” SEC workstreams, including reviews of S-1 and S-3 registration statements. “I expect there to be a long delay,” he warned, pushing back on speculation that Solana ETFs could launch “next week” while staff are furloughed. He nonetheless expects most pending crypto ETFs to clear this year “as long as it’s not a very long shutdown.”
The XRP investment case, in McClurg’s telling, will hinge not just on ETF rails but on underlying utility, especially cross-border payments. “What I like about XRP is what they’re attempting to build… for financial rails, including cross-border payments,” he said, recounting his own path into blockchain through the remittances problem. He called current remittance fees “ridiculously high,” adding: “I’m for any technology that eliminates a lot of that… that’s kind of a bit of a secret weapon… for XRP in comparison to some other ETF offerings.”
At press time, XRP traded at $2.97.
