Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) argues that altcoins are replaying the same structural script that preceded the 2021 “altseason,” this time on the ratio of the altcoin market cap excluding Ethereum and stablecoins versus Bitcoin (often proxied as “Total3/BTC”). In a video posted late on September 2, he contends that confluence across weekly and monthly timeframes—on both linear and logarithmic scales—shows a Wyckoff-style bottoming process culminating in a “spring” and range reclaim, with momentum and breadth indicators lining up the way they did ahead of the 2021 surge.
On the weekly linear timeframe, Kevin points to indicator symmetry with the 2021 liftoff. He cites a fresh weekly buy on Market Cipher and says its “money flow” profile is tracing the same contour as the prior cycle’s spring. He adds that “whale money flow bottomed out at the exact same level as it did in 2021,” the MACD “crossed to the upside at the exact same level,” and the stochastic RSI has already surged to 96. In 2021, he notes, “once we broke the 80 level and stayed above it… you got your most aggressive price action.” The implication is that a push toward the “100 level” could coincide with the period of maximum upside impulse, as it did during the last cycle’s early thrust.
He then zooms out to the monthly log chart of Total3/BTC, where he locates what he describes as an eight-year support band around “the 0.27 to 0.24 area,” a long down-trendline of resistance now meeting “a higher low structure,” and a momentum backdrop he characterizes as classically divergent.
On Market Cipher’s monthly momentum waves, “higher lows, higher lows, higher lows, while price action made lower lows… that is a bullish divergence,” he said, stressing that this signal is most potent at major historical supports. The monthly RSI, he adds, appears to be “peeking our heads out” of a multi-year downtrend channel for the first time since the 2021 top. Meanwhile, the monthly stochastic RSI has carved a “full-blown V-shaped turn” up from near zero but has “hasn’t even come close to breaking the 80 level yet,” which in his framework is precisely when “you will not see your most bullish price action until you break the 80 level.”
Kevin places particular weight on a double-bottom motif in his monthly L-MACD read, calling it “the same exact bottoming pattern” that formed between June and December 2020. “When you double bottom and make a basically a double bottom… game on,” he said, arguing that the renewed cross echoes the momentum inflection that preceded the altcoin surge into early 2021. He also notes that July and June printed a two-step low similar to the June/December 2020 pair that marked the prior regime shift.
The through-line is that breadth is beginning to turn at a structural level while momentum gauges transition from deeply negative to positive across timeframes. He underscores that the signal is appearing in tandem across linear weekly and log monthly views, which he describes as unprecedented in its alignment. “There’s never been a time where these two charts have looked the way that they look in tandem on log and linear on the weekly, on the monthly,” he said. If that symmetry holds, he expects “the altcoin market cap to start stealing dominance away from Bitcoin at a higher faster pace than we’ve seen since the previous altcoin season.”
At press time, TOTAL3 stood at $1.04 trillion.
