Markets price a 25 basis point cut for this meeting with further easing odds into year end, according to the CME FedWatch methodology that maps fed funds futures to meeting-by-meeting probabilities.
The setup ties directly to Bitcoin’s macro channel, where guidance on the front end transmits to 10-year real yields and the dollar, then into ETF demand and derivatives positioning on the tape.
Flows frame the week. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from a large outflow on Oct. 16 to a large inflow on Oct. 21, then a modest net gain on Oct. 24.
Breadth outside the top two issuers has been inconsistent, which makes the policy tone a near term driver of allocation follow-through after the decision window.
That mix can be a catalyst for two-way wicks if the path deviates from pricing. The Oct. 17 risk-off session that saw roughly $147 million in BTC liquidations tracked by CoinGlass illustrates the wipeout potential when positioning is crowded.
Those variables matter for digital asset risk appetite, since BTC has shown episodes of strong inverse correlation with U.S. real yields and tends to lag when the dollar firms, although the relationship is state-dependent and can break down.
Mechanically, a 25 bp cut combined with a cautious tone would anchor front-end expectations, which would tend to keep 10-year real yields flat to slightly lower and the dollar steady to softer.
Under that path, ETF nets could skew mixed to modestly positive with a chance of broader participation beyond the top two if Powell avoids hawkish twists, while the spot tape trades range-bound with buy-the-dip interest around presser volatility.
A more dovish 25 bp paired with an easing bias or softer labor acknowledgments would be expected to shave real yields and pressure the dollar, a setup that historically supports ETF breadth and opens a 6 to 12 percent upside window over the 72-hour post-decision span if flows chase.
A hold with a firm tone lifts real yields and the dollar, a combination that has coincided with net outflows in prior episodes, where IBIT and FBTC can absorb some demand yet the aggregate can turn negative, and where long liquidations pick up given elevated open interest.
A surprise 50 bp cut would pull real yields down, push the dollar lower, and invite outsized inflows with call-wing interest on options, followed by profit taking into week’s end.
Watch the 10-year real yield proxy and DXY during the statement and press conference. A 10 bp real-yield drop in a short window has mapped to stronger next-day ETF nets in prior episodes, while a firm dollar often feeds defensive flows.
Refresh the U.S. spot ETF flow tape after 6 to 7 p.m. ET and again before the open to catch late allocations with dashboard from SoSoValue or Farside Investors.
For derivatives stress, monitor aggregate open interest versus market cap, funding rate heat maps, and liquidations dashboards on CoinGlass, then cross-check options 25-delta skew and term structure on Deribit to confirm whether the surface is put-rich under a hawkish read or call-rich under a dovish chase.
In crypto microstructure, ETF breadth relative to the leaders, any single-day outlier exceeding $300 million, CME share of futures open interest, and front-month implied volatility into month-end are the items to track as the market processes the policy path.
Across all of this, correlation regimes can shift. BTC’s link to real yields and the dollar has been strong at times and weak at others, which argues for focusing on the policy guidance and its transmission to rates, the USD, and ETF demand rather than treating a single coefficient as stable.
The incremental data releases and Powell’s tone are set to define that mapping into month-end. The BEA releases Q3 GDP at 8:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 30 and PCE on Oct. 31.
