Dogecoin’s exchange dynamics have flipped at a key moment, with fresh on-chain data pointing to a shift in short-term market structure. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) highlighted a Glassnode chart showing that Dogecoin’s net supply on centralized exchanges has just turned positive, noting on X: “Dogecoin supply on exchanges just turned positive! This shift has marked sharp rebounds before.”
From mid-2024 through late 2024, the series alternates between modest red and green periods before a sustained cluster of strong green bars emerges around the fourth quarter of 2024. During that phase, net inflows rise to several billion DOGE per month. At the same time, the price line accelerated from below $0.10 to a local peak to $0.48, illustrating how heavy exchange-side activity accompanied the rally.
After that peak, the structure changes. Through early and mid-2025, the histogram becomes more mixed, with smaller positive and negative reads as price oscillates broadly between roughly $0.12 and $0.30. Heading into late 2025, however, the chart shows a pronounced sequence of red bars, with net outflows extending down toward roughly −5 to −6 billion DOGE while the price trends lower from the mid-$0.20s toward the low-$0.20s and below.
The final data point, emphasized by a circular highlight on the right edge of the chart, marks a clear break in that pattern: a tall green bar crosses back above the zero line, indicating that net flows have turned positive again. At that moment, the price line sits slightly above the $0.15 mark on the vertical scale. Martinez interprets this as a “major rebound signal,” pointing to previous instances where a similar transition from persistent outflows to strong inflows coincided with sharp directional moves.
A third chart, a cost-basis distribution heatmap, tracks DOGE’s price against horizontal bands representing where holders’ cost bases are concentrated. It confirms two core cohorts: a lower band between $0.0812497 and $0.08279775 with 27,397,971,652.123432 DOGE, and an upper band from $0.20103297 to $0.20486326 containing 12,156,333,652.493444 DOGE.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.158.
