Dogecoin is confronting a dense supply overhang at the $0.21 neighborhood, where on-chain data show a striking concentration of realized cost. Market analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) highlighted a Glassnode cost-basis distribution heatmap showing a heavy band at that level
The technical context around that same band adds weight to the on-chain reading. In a separate TradingView chart shared Oct. 20, Ali noted that Dogecoin “just bounced off the channel support and looks set to climb. Eyes on $0.29 first, then $0.45 and $0.86.”
Read together, the three signals sketch a coherent near-term battleground. First, the cost-basis heatmap identifies a thick realized-supply node precisely where spot is grappling—$0.21—implying latent sell pressure from holders looking to exit at break-even and equally strong validation if price can flip the level into support.
If bulls absorb the ~$2.2 billion equivalent sitting at $0.21 and reclaim the 0.618 band, Ali’s stepped upside $0.29 (0.786 Fib), $0.46 (1.0 Fib) and $0.86 (1.272 Fib extension) path provides a clear roadmap of overhead targets; if they fail, the confluence argues for a renewed retest of channel support before any larger move.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.195.
