Elon Musk is raising new questions about Bitcoin’s long-term safety in the face of rapid advances in quantum computing. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO turned to his AI chatbot, Grok, to find out how likely it is that Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing algorithm could be cracked by powerful quantum machines.
His question came just as IBM revealed major plans for its next-generation quantum system called Blue Jay, which is expected to reach 2,000 global qubits by 2033.
But when looking out to 2035, the probability goes up slightly—though it still stays under 10%. These numbers are based on expert assessments and current quantum capabilities.
Based on 2025 assessments from NIST, IBM, and expert surveys, the probability of quantum computing cracking SHA-256 (via Grover’s algorithm, reducing preimage search to ~2^128 operations) is near 0% in the next 5 years and <10% by 2035. It requires millions of error-corrected…
Grok added that stronger algorithms like SHA-3 or SHA-512 could be used as replacements if needed in the future.
Eventually, quantum computers might become powerful enough to break the entire transaction process, the analysts said. To prevent this, the Bitcoin network would need to adopt post-quantum cryptography—an emerging but complex solution currently being explored by cryptographers worldwide.
It’s part of the company’s larger effort to be at the forefront of quantum computing by the early 2030s. With other industry giants such as Google and Microsoft not far behind, the competition is heating up.
With the extent of those holdings, it is no wonder that Musk would like to get ahead of potential threats. His tweet is seemingly relaxed, but it indicates increased awareness in the tech world about how quantum advances might affect the world of crypto and finance.
Featured image from ABB, chart from TradingView
