A math-based scenario is getting attention in markets this week. According to experts, Ether’s market value has historically moved to about 30–35% of Bitcoin’s market cap during major bull runs.
If Bitcoin climbs to $150,000 from its current price of $119,250, that ratio would put Ether near $8,656 at the top end of the model.
According to an analysis by trader Yashasedu a lower range of ratios — between close to 22% and 30% — would put Ether between $5,370 and $7,400 if Bitcoin does reach $150,000.
According to the trader’s logic, the calculation is simple: pick a BTC price, multiply by BTC supply for market cap, then apply a chosen ETH/BTC market-cap ratio and divide by ETH supply to get an ETH price.
2017: ~35% 2021: ~36%
Based on reports, spot Ether ETFs recorded a single-day inflow of $1 billion recently — the biggest day so far — and TVL on Ethereum has topped $90 billion, figures that supporters point to as proof demand is rising.
Several well-known market voices have put out higher Bitcoin targets that feed into these scenarios. Tom Lee, Arthur Hayes, and Joe Burnett have forecasted Bitcoin could reach as high as $250,000 by the end of 2025.
MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe has said that we’ll likely see a new ATH for ETH and then some consolidation. Those calls are opinions, and traders use them to build scenarios rather than certainties.
Ether recorded 20 out of 30 green days recently, a 67% run of positive days, and about 8.33% price volatility over the last 30 days. These numbers feed both the bullish story and the case for caution.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
