Arthur Hayes centers Bitcoin as the primary beneficiary of what he calls an inevitable ECB money-printing cycle triggered by France’s worsening funding position, capital flight, and political stalemate.
In his Oct. 2, 2025 essay “Bastille Day,” Hayes argues that the developing fracture is not merely a euro story but a reserve-asset reshuffle that elevates BTC because it is a portable, bearer instrument outside the reach of Eurozone gatekeepers. “The slow-motion collapse of the French state is the signal that it’s time to sell euros and buy Bitcoin,” he writes, later distilling the trade into a binary: “Either the ECB presses the Brrr button now and implicitly finances the French welfare state, or it does it later when French capital controls threaten to destroy the euro. Either way, money gets printed in the trillions of euros.”
That prescription is the capstone to his analysis of France’s TARGET2 deficit and reliance on foreign creditors. With “59% of French OAT government bonds with maturity over one year” and “70% of French long-term bank debt” held abroad, he contends the financing base is fragile. If foreign holders are haircut or flee, he expects the ECB’s response to be large and fast: “If these assets get wiped out, the EU banking system is approaching insolvency on an unlevered basis. To save the EU banking system, the ECB would print EUR 5.02 trillion.”
The central mechanism that connects France’s stress to a BTC bid, in Hayes’s telling, is the acceleration of deposit migration across the euro area’s settlement rails. He points to the shift in national TARGET balances since 2020 to argue that “French savers increasingly do not believe that their euros are safe within the French banking system.”
Hayes pushes the Bitcoin-first framing through multiple contingencies. If the ECB withholds support to discipline Paris, he expects bank stress to worsen and capital to move faster, enriching the BTC bid. If the ECB capitulates early, he expects balance-sheet expansion to debase the unit of account, also enriching the BTC bid. “The ECB will valiantly print money to forestall the loss of its raison d’être,” he writes.
“It shall be a glorious day for the faithful as printed euros will combine with printed dollars, yuan, yen, etc to bid up the price of Bitcoin.” Even a hypothetical French exit and a weaker franc doesn’t alter the destination in his view; it merely shifts the channel through which policy redistributes losses. “Locals who still hold French financial assets still have time to get out… But when they come, you cannot withdraw much in the way of physical euro cash, or wire euros outside of the French banking system, or escape by buying Bitcoin and gold.”
To scope magnitude, Hayes offers directional estimates that emphasize speed rather than precision. He notes “domestic French banking deposits totaled EUR 2.6 tn” as of July 2025 and estimates “25% of this capital could leave within a few days… This amounts to EUR 650 bn.”
At press time, BTC traded at $118,597.
