Bond traders, hedge funds, and global macro strategists have ramped up bets against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks, a move that’s about to shake currency markets. As the wave of “short dollar” positioning grows, it’s raising fresh warnings about volatility, not just in forex but across equities, bonds, commodities, and crypto.
Shorting the dollar means speculators are betting its value will decline relative to other major currencies. It’s a trend that has picked up steam in September, fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its tightening cycle and may soon pivot to further interest rate cuts.
Fiscal deficits, talk of dedollarization in global trade, and capital flows into assets like gold and emerging market currencies have all put pressure on the greenback.
This kind of move doesn’t just affect currency markets. U.S. equities and global markets can see sudden capital flows as currency hedges are unwound. Treasury yields may swing as risk sentiment and safe-haven demand shift. Gold and oil prices can react violently to dollar strength or weakness, and a strong U.S. dollar often pushes crypto prices down, and vice versa.
However, while the dollar is trending weaker, losing 10% of its value this year, it has posted intermittent gains when economic news turns positive. The back-and-forth can mean sharp swings for investors as positions are unwound or reversed.
The risk with a crowded short is that too many traders end up on the same side of the bet. If circumstances change, exits are narrow, leading to outsized moves that ripple through global financial markets.
While the trade remains a favorite heading into Q4 2025, history has shown that crowded positioning can make for a bumpy ride ahead. Volatility is not just possible; it’s likely, and investors should be prepared for big moves in both directions.
