It stated:
“Last week, sentiment has twice reached ;extreme fear’ levels on an intraday basis, yet bitcoin has shown relative resilience, holding around ~$108k – a level that also aligns with the short-term holder cost basis – this appears to provide a strong support for bitcoin right now as sellers are increasingly exhausted.”
The firm further pointed out that Bitcoin was still up nearly 3.7% in September despite last week’s turbulence. This is notable considering September is historically the weakest month of the year for the top crypto.
In contrast, the final quarter often delivers strong gains, with November repeatedly ranking as Bitcoin’s most profitable month.
According to Bitwise, this historical pattern makes current weakness look more like an opportunity than a warning sign.
According to the firm, gradual optimism has returned to the perpetual futures market, where leveraged longs have re-entered after last week’s liquidations.
QCP stated that Bitcoin open interest has risen from $42.8 billion to $43.6 billion. At the same time, funding rates remain positive and positioning on platforms like Hyperliquid has swung decisively back toward the long side.
However, the firm warned that a sustained uptrend will only be confirmed if BTC clears the $115,000 threshold. It added:
“Options markets reflect this hesitation, with put skew and OI in BTC and ETH slowly normalizing as traders rebuild conviction.”
