JPMorgan has thrown fresh fuel on the most durable comparison in digital assets, arguing in a new research note that Bitcoin now screens “too cheap” versus gold as its volatility collapses to historic lows.
The bank’s cross-asset team says six-month BTC volatility has fallen from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to roughly 30%—a series low—and that Bitcoin is now only about twice as volatile as gold, the narrowest gap on record. On the bank’s volatility-adjusted framework, that compression implies Bitcoin’s market value would need to rise about 13%—translating to roughly $126,000 per coin—to align with the roughly $5 trillion private investment market in gold, leaving BTC “undervalued by around $16,000” on this basis.
“If Bitcoin and gold simply keep growing at their current five-year compound annual growth rates, parity arrives in late 2031. That would mean a $53 trillion market cap for Bitcoin and a price north of $2.5 million per coin. Even under more conservative assumptions, the convergence still happens in the early 2030s. Because it’s not just about Bitcoin’s growth, it’s also about gold losing market share,” the analyst argues.
JPMorgan just admitted bitcoin at $112k is undervalued versus gold.
Bitcoin would be $1.17M if it was the size of gold today.
When will bitcoin reach gold parity, and how much will it be worth?
While these are Consorti’s projections, not JPMorgan’s, they sketch the more maximalist endpoint of the same relative-value logic.
At press time, BTC traded at $111,061.
