From that point, the retail-driven psychological cycle took roughly 9 to 12 months to fully play out. This time around, the analyst suggests that altseason hasn’t even started in earnest. The ETH/BTC ratio, often used as the criteria for altseason momentum, is only just beginning to reverse.
Given this timing, Quinten noted that a cycle top occurring within the next two or three months is nearly impossible. The moment altseason begins marks the entry of broad retail participation, and from that point onward, it typically takes 9 to 12 months for euphoria and market excess to reach a crescendo.
If history is any guide, the current psychological cycle is still in its early stages because the retail cycle hasn’t properly kicked in yet. This would push a market peak into the second or third quarter of 2026 at the earliest.
The only condition that could allow for a major top this year, Quinten admitted, would be an absence of an altcoin cycle altogether. That scenario, or a catastrophic black swan event, could short-circuit the retail cycle and lead to an earlier-than-usual top. However, the possibility of this happening is very low, and this psychological cycle simply cannot play out much quicker than 9-12 months.
As such, Bitcoin’s price action is most likely to play out like it has always done. “If things unfold as they historically have (we can only count on this), then it’s just not going to happen,” he said.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $114,460, having declined by about 3.7% in the past seven days.
