Wintermute, one of crypto’s largest market makers, struck an overtly risk-on tone in a Monday market update on X, arguing that a dovish macro turn and thawing US–China tensions have reset positioning and liquidity into a friendlier Q4 regime. In a post dated October 28, the firm wrote that “risk appetite is returning as softer CPI data and improving Trump-Xi relations lifted markets, with yields easing and volatility declining,” adding that “Bitcoin reclaimed $115k on ETF inflows and short squeezes, while DeFi and AI sectors led the recovery.”
On the crypto side, the update said “Bitcoin performed well with a 5.3% gain, climbing above $115k… amplified by $160m in short liquidations,” while “Ethereum tracked higher toward $4,200,” and “gold unwound nearly 7% from its highs, signaling a rotation from defensive assets into risk assets.”
Wintermute characterized the advance as broadening beneath the surface. “DeFi and AI names led gains on strong protocol revenue prints and improving on-chain activity,” while “Utilities and Tooling benefited from infrastructure-related rotation as new L2 deployments and restaking primitives drew liquidity.”
Derivatives posture turned supportive, too: “On the perp side, funding rates turned positive again across most majors… though positioning remains far from crowded.” The firm also flagged a turn in base money for crypto beta: “Stablecoin supply is ticking higher for the first time since September, reinforcing that macro tailwinds are beginning to translate into fresh inflows.
Spot demand from US spot ETFs, according to Wintermute, continues to anchor the structure even as activity cooled. “US spot BTC ETFs absorbed moderate inflows through the week even as volumes thinned, underscoring sticky structural demand.” Meanwhile, derivatives leverage “is rebuilding at a measured pace after the early-month flush,” which the firm framed as healthier—“cleaner leverage and more balanced funding.”
In its closing summary, Wintermute reiterated that “positioning is cleaner, volatility subdued, and capital rotation is gradually steering toward crypto. With liquidity conditions improving and sentiment stabilising, the setup into Q4 remains constructive, favouring further risk-on continuation.”
At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.78 trillion.
