Polymarket contracts price less than a 1% chance that President Donald Trump will resign today, as traders position into a 2 P.M. ET Oval Office announcement reported by multiple outlets citing a White House advisory.
Trading around Trump’s tenure and health has drawn sizable volume. As of early afternoon on Sept. 2, a same-day “resign today” market on Polymarket showed <1% odds with roughly $1 million traded, based on live market boards shared with CryptoSlate.
Market rules frame why odds cluster at the low end.
The resignation market pays out on an announcement alone by Dec. 31, 2025, irrespective of the effective date, per Polymarket’s rule set for the 2025 resignation contract.
In odd timing (for those indulging in conspiracy theory), VP J.D. Vance recently asserted that he is ready to be President should anything happen to Trump. Some have also claimed the images of Trump from this weekend are either a lookalike, fake, old, or show the president in very frail shape.
By 2 P.M. today, much of the social media weekend Zeitgeist will be solved, and millions will be paid out to those betting on the outcome via crypto’s always-present Polymarket prediction markets.
Rumor-driven markets can move fast, then mean-revert when new reporting lands. Today’s setup centers on the Oval Office announcement window and whether it alters the information environment that underpins these contracts.
Until that catalyst arrives, Polymarket’s same-day resignation line remains priced as a tail event, and the year-end resignation and removal contracts trade in the single digits.
