The Tokyo court extended the original cutoff date of Oct. 31, 2024, by one year after processing delays and missing documentation stalled distributions that began in July 2024.
Oct. 31 marks a completion date, not a single payout event, and the trustee reports that these stages are “largely completed” for creditors who have submitted all required information.
The backdrop raises questions about whether exchanges will absorb a late-month supply wave or creditors will route coins through custody and over-the-counter channels.
Of the original 142,000 BTC in the pool, approximately 107,000 BTC have been transferred to end recipients.
Additional batches followed through late summer, but the current split between exchange-bound and custodial flows remains undisclosed.
Three potential pathways shape how the remaining 34,689 BTC reaches markets before the deadline.
In a staggered-distribution scenario, creditors receive batches throughout October but choose to hold or transfer coins into custody, thereby minimizing immediate sell pressure.
A second scenario sees creditors routing coins into over-the-counter desks, thereby draining liquidity from institutional buyers without hitting public order books.
OTC transactions bypass exchange infrastructure entirely, leaving spot volumes and basis trades unaffected while still completing distributions before Oct. 31.
The third scenario introduces surprise exchange inflows as batches of cleared custodial checks are added to Bitstamp or Kraken order books.
Concentrated inflows would be reflected in spot volumes, potentially compressing basis spreads and affecting ETF arbitrage flows as market makers rebalance their hedges.
Exchange-bound deliveries carry higher visibility than custodial or OTC paths, making sudden wallet movements a key signal for traders monitoring Mt. Gox addresses through the month-end deadline.
Out of the roughly 107,000 BTC distributed, reports are that approximately 59,000 BTC reached exchanges, while around 33,000 BTC were processed through BitGo. The rest is not reported publicly. As a result, out of the 92,000 BTC tracked, 64.1% were sent to exchanges.
If applied to the remaining Bitcoin balance to be distributed, the worst-case scenario of a supply dump would be 22,253 BTC reaching the exchanges simultaneously. Bitcoin traded at $106,795.03 as of press time, representing a potential $2.4 billion sell pressure.
However, what drove the prices down for the entire crypto market last year on nearly the same date was the unwind of the yen carry trade, which sent BTC from $58,315.08 to $49,351.27 on Aug. 4.
Regarding Mt. Gox-related movements, Bitcoin’s price remained steady on Jul. 30, when 47,229 BTC were moved to three wallets. At the time, the amount represented $3.1 billion.
As a result, even in the worst-case scenario of $2.4 billion hitting exchanges, Bitcoin’s history suggests that the price might just experience slight fluctuations.
