The Bitcoin price has recently deviated from historical trends, particularly those that typically see the leading cryptocurrency experience a surge in October. This month, Bitcoin has retraced over 10%, erasing gains made earlier when it briefly reached a record high of $126,000.
As attention shifts to November, often dubbed “Moonvember,” the focus is on the historical Bitcoin price performance during this month. Over the past 14 years, November has been BTC’s second strongest month after October, averaging gains of 10.3%.
Recent developments, including the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to further rate cuts and renewed trade tensions following President Trump’s meeting with China’s Chairman Xi, have triggered a risk-off sentiment across various assets.
Bitcoin futures have shown increased volatility, with prices dropping below crucial support levels around $110,000. Institutional interest has also slowed, as seen with Strategy (MSTR), which acquired only 778 Bitcoin in October—a steep decline of 78% compared to September’s purchases.
On-chain metrics indicate that long-term holders are maintaining their positions, with their supply climbing to 76.2%. However, short-term traders have contributed to significant liquidations, totaling billions.
Looking ahead, historical data suggests that November could be favorable for the Bitcoin price, with solid median gains and peaks averaging around 40%. Predictions for 2025 vary, but many analysts remain optimistic.
Upcoming events, such as the anniversary of the Bitcoin Whitepaper and potential stablecoin regulations in Canada, may serve as additional catalysts.
However, the outlook is not entirely optimistic. Some models suggest that further dips could occur in early November if resistance levels hold. Geopolitical risks, including ongoing tariff threats, have the potential to amplify the growing Bitcoin price volatility.
Models from PlanB also reflect this optimism, highlighting historical patterns that suggest a positive trajectory. Traders are leaning toward the notion of “Moonvember” as a possible catalyst for a bullish trend, particularly with altcoin rotations expected following recent consolidations.
As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at $106,595, recording losses of 3.6% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
