Framed against payment “flows,” the stablecoin tally places on-chain dollars within low single-digit share of global settlement, and it is beginning to sit alongside mainstream rails in scale for specific use cases such as cross-border transfers and 24/7 treasury moves.
The reference point matters. Using global payments value of roughly $2 quadrillion for 2024, stablecoins account for about 2.3% of the world’s payment flows on a flow-to-flow basis.
That comparison keeps the denominator consistent and avoids a common apples-to-oranges pitfall in which a flow series is stacked against a money stock.
For readers who still want the provocation, a $46 trillion flow divided by about $22.195 trillion of U.S. M2 money stock, the August 2025 reading, produces a raw ratio near 207%, though the series measure different things and should not be interpreted as a “share of dollars.”
For U.S. benchmarks, stablecoins remain smaller than wholesale wires and roughly half of the automated clearing house system on an annualized basis.
The Federal Reserve’s Fedwire Funds Service moved about $1.133 quadrillion in 2024, and Nacha’s ACH value, annualized from third-quarter 2025 volumes, is near $93 trillion.
Those anchors show where on-chain dollars fit today and where the slope could matter if policy and distribution continue to open doors.
A stock-to-stock lens helps gauge the footprint of tokenized dollars in the monetary base conversation.
With an average stablecoin float in the $250 billion to $300 billion range over the last year, the tokenized slice sits a bit above 1% of the M2 money stock.
That framing tracks with the idea that stablecoins function like instant-settlement wrappers on money market-style reserves rather than deposits, and it has consequences for Treasury market plumbing because reserve composition leans toward short-dated bills. The moving parts are the float and its turnover.
Dividing $46 trillion in trailing-twelve-month transfers by a $250 billion to $300 billion average float yields an implied annualized turnover near 150 to 185 times. The figure is a color metric rather than a welfare claim since internal hops, exchange wallets, and automated flows can inflate counts.
Adjusted transfer methodologies, such as the a16z style of netting internal movement, can narrow the gap between raw and economic volume.
The law gives agencies marching orders on rulemaking timelines and sets the baseline for supervised issuance, custody, and attestations. Issuer behavior is already shifting toward a compliance-first lane.
Reserve composition brings the Treasury market into scope. Stablecoin issuers collectively hold well over $150 billion in U.S. Treasury bills, which places the sector among the larger marginal buyers at the front end.
If stablecoin float expands with new distribution channels, the add-on demand for T-bills becomes a mechanical function of growth and reserve policy rather than a discretionary trade. That link is beginning to matter to rates desks and public-sector watchers tracking bill supply.
Card networks, processors, and enterprise wallets are beginning to stitch on-chain settlement into checkout flows, supplier payments, and remittance rails, often with stablecoins confined to the interbank leg while user interfaces remain familiar.
That template, paired with lower-fee base layers and faster block times, feeds the throughput headline more than pure speculative churn.
Forward scenarios through 2027 center on three variables, policy cadence, distribution depth, and reserve carry.
A base path with normalized U.S. oversight and expanding fintech integrations maps to a stablecoin float of roughly $450 billion to $650 billion and trailing-twelve-month transfers near $70 trillion to $90 trillion, which implies a 3% to 4.5% share of global payment value if the McKinsey denominator grows at its historical pace.
A higher-uptake path that includes payroll, merchant settlement, and issuance by supervised U.S. banks moves the float toward $800 billion to $1.2 trillion, with $110 trillion to $150 trillion in annualized transfers and a 5% to 7% global share, alongside $300 billion to $500 billion in T-bill holdings if reserve policies remain bill-heavy.
A slower path that reflects stricter filtering of non-economic transfers and delayed on-ramp rules would leave the float in a $350 billion to $450 billion band and throughput near $50 trillion to $60 trillion, keeping global share closer to 2.5% to 3%.
These ranges are directional and should be evaluated with adjusted transfer series to bound noise from internal wallet moves.
Flow metrics include internal hops and automated strategies that do not always map to economic activity, and cross-source timebases vary, with global payments anchored in 2024 while the stablecoin tally is trailing and current.
Labeling flow versus stock, and pairing raw with adjusted series, avoids overstating adoption while still reflecting the scale of settlement that now clears on public chains.
For markets, a $46T, ~2.3% share of global payment value running through “dollar tokens” means the dollar leg of crypto is getting deeper, faster, and that’s bullish for BTC/ETH liquidity.
For Bitcoin, thicker stablecoin pools on exchanges and in market-maker inventories reduce fiat friction and tighten spreads, which tends to lift spot/perp volumes and improve price discovery into risk-on windows.
For Ethereum, stablecoins are a primary user of blockspace (increasingly on L2s); more payment throughput generally means more fee revenue, a higher propensity for burn under EIP-1559, and a clearer line from payments activity to ETH cash flows and supply dynamics.
If policy keeps widening distribution (banks, processors, enterprise wallets), stablecoin float and turnover can become a leading indicator for the next leg of BTC demand and a structural tailwind for ETH network economics, while also dampening some volatility as on-chain dollars provide 24/7 liquidity during macro shocks.
