Ethereum has been a major victim of the ongoing crypto market onslaught, recording a 27.63% loss in the last month alone. The largest altcoin now trades around $2,800, representing a significant fall from the local cycle peak around $4,800. As prices continue to tumble with each new drop triggering waves of liquidation, analyst Ali Martinez has postulated on a market bottom target.
This on-chain metric reveals a set of price levels calculated by multiplying ETH’s Realized Price by different fixed multiples (e.g., 0.8x, 1.0x, 2.4x, 3.2x), with each band representing a different degree of under- or over-valuation relative to the average investor’s cost basis.
Using historical data on this metric, Martinez has identified that Ethereum tends to form a local bottom only when it dips below the lowest pricing band, i.e., 0.8× RP band (blue line). This pattern has consistently played out over the past three years, with clear examples in June 2022, December 2022, and most recently in March 2025.
Notably, the current 0.8x RP band stands at $2,007.08. If ETH is repeating historical behavior, then investors should expect another 28% correction from the present market levels to $2000 before a price rebound kicks in.
The Realized Price is defined as the average acquisition price of all circulating ETH tokens. It can be described as the true on-chain value of ETH, with any price gain above this level indicating a profit for an average investor and vice versa for a loss.
According to Martinez’s on-chain analysis, ETH’s current market price is barely above its realized price at $2,508. While this observation suggests most investors are still in profit, the recent corrections and the extended downtrend indicate a cause for worry, especially as positive market sentiment gets increasingly weaker.
While a price fall below $2,500 may pull so many investors into losses, it could also accelerate the token’s decline to $2,000 and trigger a price rebound. Looking at potential mid-cycle targets, this next bullish wave could push Ethereum to trade around $6,021.
At press time, Ethereum is valued at $2,820, reflecting a slight 1.73% gain in the last day.
