Polymarket’s terms specify that the outcome will resolve to “Yes” only if the House approves one or more articles of impeachment against Trump by a simple majority vote before 11:59 P.M. ET on Dec. 31, 2025. A Senate trial or conviction is not necessary for resolution.
The market relies on official government releases and verified reports from credible media outlets to determine results.
As of press time, the market has generated over $1.3 million worth of bets in volume.
Although Trump was impeached twice during his previous term, the Senate cleared him both times. For now, the data on the prediction markets suggest that history is unlikely to repeat itself.
The renewed speculation follows fresh political activity, with Representative Al Green introducing an article of impeachment on June 24, which argued that Trump bypassed Congress before authorizing military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
“Donald J. Trump has abused the powers of the presidency in a manner contrary to his trust as President, has become a threat to American democracy, subverted our constitutional government, and devolved democracy into authoritarianism, to the great prejudice of the cause of law and justice, and to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.”
Notably, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had voiced support for an impeachment over the weekend, saying the recent strikes against Iran were unconstitutional.
The US president mocked Ocasio-Cortez and other Democrats, calling them “stupid” and accusing them of being unable to accept his political victories.
According to him:
“The reason for [their] ‘rantings’ is all of the Victories that the USA. has had under the Trump Administration. The Democrats aren’t used to WINNING, and [they] can’t stand the concept of our Country being successful again.”
