On top of the percentage of bets on “no change,” the platform’s dashboard shows 3% betting on a 25‑basis‑point cut, and less than 1% betting on either a larger cut or a hike.
Meanwhile, Powell has continued to say that policy will remain data-dependent, with officials monitoring how tariffs and other factors impact inflation before considering easing.
During the same visit, Trump stated that the renovation would cost $3.1 billion, a figure Powell subsequently corrected, noting that the amount included costs from a different building that had been refurbished years earlier.
The exchange highlighted the broader tension over the Fed’s independence and followed Trump’s earlier suggestions, later tempered, that he could remove Powell before the end of his term.
The Polymarket odds on whether Powell will be out as chair by July 31 are trading around 1%, the August 31 version is near 5%, and a longer‑dated market puts the probability of his departure by year-end 2025 at about 17%.
For now, prediction markets align with most public Fed guidance, which is to hold steady, assess the data, and avoid pre‑committing to cuts.
