“We’re not overheated. We’re not stretched. In fact, everything is behaving exactly as it should in a breakout regime,” said Coutts, referring to his global liquidity risk score, a framework built from central bank balance sheets, money supply aggregates, FX reserves, and US net liquidity. “And when these breakouts happen, Bitcoin’s sensitivity to liquidity can increase by a factor of five or more.”
Pal, echoing the conviction, added: “From my work, it’s straight up from here. I think we’ll be surprised to the upside—especially by how fast stuff runs.”
At the heart of the discussion was Coutts’ triad of real-time market indicators: global liquidity, derivatives risk, and network profitability. These scores form the backbone of what Pal dubbed Real Vision’s “ultimate signal” for navigating crypto cycles. All three are currently sitting in a “neutral” zone, signaling neither overheating nor excessive risk—precisely the backdrop, they argue, that historically precedes massive upward repricing.
Importantly, the data confirms that the recent rally off April lows is supported by fundamentals. “Liquidity broke out in early April, and since then Bitcoin’s up 40%. Global liquidity is up about 2%. That’s consistent with prior breakout regimes,” Coutts observed. “People don’t realize how clean this setup is.”
“Back in March and April I said the bottom was forming in alts,” he noted. “We’re now starting to see higher lows on the breadth charts. The alt season oscillator triggered in late April. It’s not explosive yet—but the structure is bullish.”
Coutts’ other key insight: on-chain data confirms that neither long-term holders nor leverage are pushing the market into frothy territory. “The derivatives risk score is low. The unrealized profit metrics are neutral. There’s no positioning blowout. If anything, the market’s underexposed,” he said.
One name that stood out across metrics was Hyperliquid, the permissionless derivatives exchange that’s drawing institutional attention. “It’s my chart of shame,” Coutts admitted. “The trend triggered at $17—I missed it—and now it’s at $42. But it has one of the cleanest product-market fits we’ve seen in crypto. The tokenomics are tight. It’s trading at a reasonable multiple. And it’s burning tokens like a growth stock.”
Other chains flagged for strong network activity and undervaluation included Tron, which generates $9 million in daily fees largely via stablecoin transfers; and L2 ecosystems that are increasingly driving Ethereum’s resurgence. While daily active addresses on Ethereum’s base chain have grown only 2% over four years, L2 adoption and ETF inflows have started to shift positioning. “Nobody owned ETH. But now flows are building,” said Coutts.
The bottom line? According to Real Vision’s top crypto minds, nearly all major signals are aligned for upside.
“Liquidity is breaking out. Positioning is clean. The altcoin breadth is improving. Fundamentals are ticking back up. The FOMO index—if we dare call it that—is low,” said Pal. “You don’t get setups like this very often. Just don’t f*** this up.”
Coutts closed with a warning and a nod to discipline: “The indicators help us know when to lean in—and when to hedge. But right now, they’re not telling us to step back. They’re telling us the runway is open.”
At press time, BTC traded at $106,004.
