An X post by Bonk core contributor Nom (@TheOnlyNom) argues that a new wave of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) vehicles aimed at SOL could move price more than comparable Bitcoin or Ether treasuries—because of Solana’s smaller market cap, heavy staking that suppresses immediately available float, and the ability for treasuries to buy discounted or locked tokens before they ever touch the open market.
Nom opens with disclosures and caveats rather than price calls. “I’m not going to argue whether inflation is good or bad, I have already spent enough time talking on that and look forward to the changes,” he wrote. He also underscores his own positioning and bias: “I am a spot SOL, staked SOL, and locked SOL holder (thanks to an SPV on the estate SOL) … I would also like tokens I own to go up in value—so a flat token price is bad in my point of view.”
Based on his reading of staking accounts and vesting schedules, Nom estimates the “‘Estate SOL’ is currently at about 5 million units remaining to be unlocked, or about $1b notional.” He sets that against broader unlocks: “From the good folks over at 4shpool (gelato.sh) there’s about 21m [units] of Solana remaining to unlock until 2028, or ~$4b notional at current pricing … ‘Estate SOL’ is ~1/4 of all remaining SOL to be unlocked.”
The thread’s central mechanism is flow versus float. Nom argues that issuance plus unlocks create persistent sell pressure unless matched by price-insensitive buyers. “This matters for one specific number that we need to focus on, which is the amount of SOL hitting the market on a daily basis,” he wrote.
“If you give someone tokens for free (staking inflation/unlocks) or at a discount (FTX SOL) — you can expect some % of people to sell. I assume 100% of this inflation of 37.5m SOL in the next year to be sold.” That sets a high bar for demand: “In order to offset 37.5m SOL a year at $200 SOL … you need ~$7.5b/year in inflows, or ~$20.5m per day.”
Crucially, he argues, DATs can meet that bar more efficiently if they accumulate outside the open market. “If the DATs can more efficiently buy SOL at a discount from either the estate SOL, or other locked SOL areas, that improves the efficiency of the inflows,” he wrote.
“Raising $400m to buy SOL at a 5% discount is equivalent to $420m in inflows, which is better than $400m in inflows—the only question is how do you equate the time value of buying SOL off the market today, vs removing future sales tomorrow.”
He adds that, on his numbers, issuance dominates the supply picture: “Our inflation over the next 3 years is greater than the unlocks (EOY 2028 as end of lock schedules) … and the FTX SOL is only a quarter of the remaining unlocks—so the DATs buying the estate SOL rather than the market is not a realistic concern.”
Nom insists the difference between “trading supply” and headline “circulating supply” is what makes SOL especially sensitive to steady buyers. “Circulating supply is NOT equivalent to amount available on the market, especially for staked assets. You cannot buy staked SOL, but you can buy LSTs,” he wrote. Citing current snapshots, he notes, “Solana has 384m of its 608m SOL staked currently, or 63.1% off the market. LSTs account for 33.5m SOL, so let’s put that back as supply available to buy and round it to 350m/508m off the market, or 57.5% off the market and unavailable for purchase (at least with a 2 day lag).” By his math, that thinner immediate float means each new dollar has more price impact than on chains with lower staking penetration.
Valuation magnifies the effect, he says. “Solana is at a much lower valuation than ETH or BTC … a dollar spent on a SOL DAT is like $5 on an ETH DAT or $22 on a BTC DAT when looking at relative valuations.” Adjusting for staked versus readily tradable supply, he pushes the comparison further: “When you factor in the circulating supply amounts with staking, that’s closer to 11x for ETH efficiency or 36x for BTC efficiency.”
He also weaves in the role of ETFs and corporate vehicles alongside treasuries. “SSK is doing some of the work at roughly $2m/day in inflows since launch, however the inflation schedule needs 10x inflows — and this will likely come with further ETF approvals,” he wrote, arguing that DATs have a flywheel effect: “These DATs take supply off the market, they earn tokens based on staking yield … and they make subsequent buys by vehicles like ETFs more effective at moving the market.” On sector leadership, he’s blunt about the need for a standard-bearer: “SOL DATs need a Michael Saylor or a Tom Lee, narrative is the name of the game.”
His summary distills the thesis to a few lines: “Right now less than 1% of supply is under SOL DAT management, this will likely shift to 3% with the 3 newly announced vehicles, and 5% with planned future vehicles.” “Current ETF inflows are not sufficient,” he added, “however larger vehicles should be approved by start of Q4 and SOL remains a contender for institutional bid.”
At press time, SOL traded at $204.
